譯/陳韋廷
美企執行長對經濟衰退愈感憂心
Despite a surprisingly resilient labor market, talk of an economic downturn is on the lips of corporate leaders.
儘管勞動市場意外展現韌性，企業領導人仍在談論經濟衰退。
James S. Tisch, CEO of Loews, the hotel, insurance and industrial conglomerate, said on an earnings call with analysts last week that his "fearless forecast" was for recession, but not one that would be as "cataclysmic as '08 or '09."
飯店、保險與工業集團Loews執行長堤許上周在財報電話會議上對分析師說，他的「大膽預測」是經濟陷入衰退，但不會像2008年或09年那樣「災難性」。
And William J. Hornbuckle, CEO of MGM Resorts International, told analysts last week that he and his executives were "not blind," and that they "remain keenly aware of the impact of inflation" and the potential that the economy was headed for a downturn.
米高梅國際酒店集團執行長洪巴克上周告訴分析師，他跟他的主管們「沒瞎」，他們「仍敏銳地意識到通膨影響」，以及經濟走向衰退的潛在風險。
Recession has been an increasingly hot topic. It's customary for large public companies to hold conference calls with analysts after they report their earnings. Of the 409 companies listed on the S&P 500-stock index that have held analyst calls to discuss the most recent quarter, the R-word came up as a topic 165 times, according to Sentieo, a market data provider.
經濟衰退已成為一個愈來愈熱門的話題。公布財報後，大型上市公司通常會跟分析師舉行電話會議。根據市場數據供應商Sentieo的數據，舉行分析師電話會議討論最新一季財報的標普500股指上市公司中，衰退一字被其中409家公司當成討論主題165次。
A year ago, "recession" was uttered on 42 earnings calls by S&P 500 firms for the third quarter. Discussions about a recession have been elevated throughout this year, with big year-over-year jumps in the first and second quarters as well.
一年前，標普500指數公司中有42家在第三季財報電話會議上提到「衰退」。今年以來，有關衰退的討論一直在升溫，第一季和第二季的熱度均較一年前大幅增加。
Two weeks ago, Federal Reserve officials made a fourth supersize interest rate increase in an effort to tame inflation, heightening fears of an economic slump. The Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, said he thought there was still a window for a so-called soft landing, in which inflation dissipates but the economy does not fall into a recession.
兩周前，美國聯準會官員第四次大幅升息抑制通膨，加劇對經濟衰退的擔憂情緒。聯準會主席鮑爾說，他認為仍有實現所謂軟著陸的可能性，也就是通膨消散，但經濟不會陷入衰退。
"Has it narrowed? Yes," Powell told reporters. "Is it still possible? Yes."
鮑爾告訴記者：「降溫了嗎？是的。還有可能嗎？是的。」
Some economic indicators released last week seemed to back Powell's view. Last quarter, the gross domestic product rose at a better-than-expected annual pace of 2.6%. On Friday, the government reported that employers added 261,000 jobs to their payrolls in October, which was also above expectations.
上周公布的部分經濟指標似乎支持鮑爾的觀點。美國上一季國內生產毛額年增率2.6%，優於預期。根據政府周五的報告，十月新增就業人數26萬1,000人，也超出預期。
Nonetheless, CEOs on 88 third-quarter conference calls said that the Fed's raising of interest rates to fight inflation was either a major factor slowing their business, or that they expected it to be, according to Sentieo. Last week, Steven Roth, real estate developer and CEO of Vornado Realty Trust, told analysts that because the Fed was "deadly serious" in fighting inflation, "the economy is clearly slowing."
儘管如此，Sentieo指出，在第三季88場電話會議上，執行長們稱聯準會升息抗通膨，不是自家業績放緩的一項主因，就是他們預期的一項因素。房地產開發商Vornado Realty Trust執行長羅斯上周告訴分析師，由於聯準會在抗通膨上「非常認真」，「經濟明顯正在走緩」。
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