Pentagon Pressed to Review How It Judges an Ally’s Will to Fight 五角大廈被迫檢討 如何評斷盟邦鬥志

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2022/07/29 第393期 訂閱/退訂∣看歷史報份

紐時周報精選 Pentagon Pressed to Review How It Judges an Ally's Will to Fight 五角大廈被迫檢討 如何評斷盟邦鬥志 Who Stops a 'Bad Guy With a Gun'？ 美槍械氾濫 以暴制暴行得通？

Pentagon Pressed to Review How It Judges an Ally's Will to Fight 五角大廈被迫檢討 如何評斷盟邦鬥志 文/Julian E. Barnes 譯/李京倫 Pentagon Pressed to Review How It Judges an Ally's Will to Fight 五角大廈被迫檢討 如何評斷盟邦鬥志 Congress is poised to force the Pentagon to study how it assesses allies' will to fight, amid criticism from lawmakers that the U.S. government has regularly failed to make such assessments accurately. 美國國會將強迫五角大廈調查自己如何評估盟邦戰鬥意願。多名國會議員批，美政府常在這方面判斷失準。 A provision approved for inclusion in the Senate version of the annual defense policy bill would mandate a study by the Defense Department of how it judges the willingness of foreign militaries to fight their enemies. 獲納入參院年度國防政策法案的一項條款，將要求國防部研究自己如何判定外國軍隊與敵人戰鬥的意願。 In Afghanistan, some U.S. officials thought the Afghan military could hold together and continue to fight the Taliban after the U.S. withdrawal. In Ukraine, U.S. officials initially forecast that the Russians would take Kyiv, the capital, within a few days. Both predictions were wrong. 在阿富汗，一些美國官員以為，阿富汗軍方在美軍撤離後能團結一致，繼續對抗激進組織神學士。在烏克蘭，美國官員起初預測，俄軍將在幾天內拿下首都基輔。兩個預測都錯了。 While the Pentagon has acknowledged problems with its assessment of Afghanistan's military, it has pushed back against accusations that it misjudged Ukraine. Intelligence officials have said errors in predicting the course of the Russian invasion were more a matter of overestimating the Russians than underestimating the Ukrainians. 五角大廈雖然坦承在評估阿富汗軍隊方面有問題，卻不承認誤判烏克蘭的指控。情報官員說，預測俄軍入侵過程有錯，與其是低估烏軍，毋寧是高估俄軍。 Senator Angus King, the Maine independent who pushed for the provision to be included in the annual bill, said that the Pentagon and intelligence agencies had made errors in judging an ally's willingness to fight, but that such assessments are far more difficult, and more subjective, than counting up tanks. 推動將這條款納入年度法案的緬因州無黨籍聯邦參議員金恩說，五角大廈和情報機構錯判盟邦戰鬥意志，不過這樣的評估本來就遠比算戰車數量困難且主觀。 "The Department respectfully rejects the notion that there was any doubt about Ukraine's will to fight," said Marine Corps Lt. Col. Anton Semelroth, a Defense Department spokesperson. "It remains inspiring to see the courage and bravery of the Ukrainian people as they stand up against Russia's unprovoked and brutal invasion." 國防部發言人陸戰隊中校塞梅羅斯說：「本部駁斥對於烏克蘭戰鬥意願有疑慮的說法。看到烏克蘭人民挺身對抗俄國無端殘暴入侵的膽量和英勇，仍激勵人心。」 In a hearing before the Senate Arms Services Committee in May, King argued with Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, over whether the Pentagon had misjudged the capacity of the Ukrainians and the Russian forces rather than the will of the Ukrainian military. 金恩5月在參院軍事委員會聽證會上與國防情報局局長貝里爾中將爭論，五角大廈是誤判烏軍與俄軍的實力，還是誤判烏軍的意志。 "Intelligence is often shaped by perception of the viewer, of the listener," King said. "And the challenge is for policymakers to have unvarnished, clear intelligence, even though it may contradict their policy preference." 金恩說：「情報往往受到觀看和聆聽者的見解影響，決策者的挑戰是獲取不加掩飾的清晰情報，即使它可能與政策偏好相反。」 "Long-term commitments such as these, however, can only accomplish so much if beneficiary forces are not willing to stand and fight,"said Army Maj. Rob Lodewick, a Pentagon spokesperson."One needs only to look at the current situation in Ukraine for an example of what an equipped, trained and resilient force is capable of achieving." 五角大廈發言人陸軍少校洛德韋克說：「如果受援助的軍隊不願挺身抗敵，這類長期承諾能做到的只有這麼多。但只需看看烏克蘭作為範例，就知道裝備齊全、受過訓練且堅韌的軍隊能達成什麼。」 Who Stops a 'Bad Guy With a Gun'？ 美槍械氾濫 以暴制暴行得通？ 文/Larry Buchanan and Lauren Le 譯/莊蕙嘉 美槍械氾濫 以暴制暴行得通？ The lengthy police response to a school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, and the death of an armed security guard as part of an attack on a Buffalo, New York, supermarket last month have drawn fresh scrutiny to a recurring (and uniquely American) debate: What role should police and bystanders play in active shooter attacks, and what interventions would best stop the violence? 處理德州烏瓦德學校槍擊案的警方反應拖拖拉拉，而上月紐約州水牛城一間超市遇襲時，一名武裝保全警衛死亡，這為一項反覆出現（而且只在美國）的辯論提出新的檢視：警察和旁觀者在隨機濫射案該採取何種角色，以及何種介入才能最有效阻止暴力？ The debate has moved to Capitol Hill as lawmakers consider gun safety legislation that could increase funding for mental health services, school safety and other measures aimed at keeping guns out of the hands of dangerous people. "What stops armed bad guys is armed good guys," Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, suggested in the wake of the Uvalde shooting, echoing many other gun rights advocates over the years. 當國會議員考慮槍枝安全立法，增加經費從事心理健康服務、校園安全以及不讓危險人物擁槍等措施時，這場辯論移到國會山莊。「能阻止武裝壞人的只有武裝好人」，共和黨籍德州聯邦參議員克魯茲在烏瓦德槍擊案後如此暗示，呼應這些年來其他許多擁槍權倡議者。 Researchers who study active shooter events say it can be difficult to draw broad policy conclusions from individual episodes, but a review of data from two decades of such attacks reveals patterns in how they unfold and how hard they are to stop once they have begun. 隨機濫射案的研究者說，從個別事件作出廣泛政策結論是困難的，但檢視廿年來這類攻擊的數據，可顯示案件如何發生的模式，以及一旦槍擊開始要阻止有多難。 There were at least 433 active shooter attacks — in which one or more assailants killed or attempted to kill multiple unrelated people in a populated place — in the United States from 2000 to 2021. The country experienced an average of more than one a week in 2021 alone. 2000至2021年，美國至少有433件隨機濫射案，一名或更多攻擊者，在人口密集場所殺害或企圖殺害多個不相關的人。光是2021年，美國平均每周發生超過一件這類槍案。 The data comes from the Advanced Law Enforcement Rapid Response Training Center at Texas State University, whose researchers work with the FBI to catalog and examine these attacks. Unlike mass shooting tallies that count a minimum number of people shot or killed, the active attack data includes episodes with fewer casualties, but researchers exclude domestic shootings and gang-related attacks. 這些數據來自德州州立大學的高級執法部門快速反應訓練中心，研究人員和聯邦調查局合作，分類與檢視這些攻擊。不同於大規模槍擊案紀錄，中槍或喪生者要達到最低門檻數字才會列入，隨機濫射案數據還包含較少傷亡案件，不過研究者排除家暴和幫派相關的攻擊。 Most attacks captured in the data were already over before law enforcement arrived. People at the scene did intervene, sometimes shooting the attackers, but typically physically subduing them. But in about half of all cases, the attackers killed themselves or simply stopped shooting and fled. 這些數據涵蓋的攻擊案，大多數在執法單位抵達前就已結束。在現場的人確實曾介入，有些人對攻擊者開槍，不過通常是用身體制伏他們。但在大約一半的案件中，攻擊者會自殺，或停止開槍並逃逸。 "It's direct, indisputable, empirical evidence that this kind of common claim that 'the only thing that stops a bad guy with the gun is a good guy with the gun' is wrong," said Adam Lankford, a professor at the University of Alabama, who has studied mass shootings for more than a decade. "It's demonstrably false, because often they are stopping themselves." 「這是直接、無可辯駁且依據經驗而生的證據，顯示『唯一能阻止拿槍壞人的只有拿槍的好人』這種常見說法是錯的。」研究大規模槍擊案超過十年的阿拉巴馬大學教授蘭克佛德說，「這證實是錯的，犯案者常是自己停手。」

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