The Biden-Trump Rematch That Nobody Wants 沒有人想看的第二次拜川大戰

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2023/10/13 第454期 訂閱/退訂∣看歷史報份

紐時周報精選 The Biden-Trump Rematch That Nobody Wants 沒有人想看的第二次拜川大戰 'Peak China' (Post-Dynasty Version) 盛極必衰 大陸發展已「觸頂」？

The Biden-Trump Rematch That Nobody Wants 沒有人想看的第二次拜川大戰 文/Lisa Lerer, Reid J. Epstein 譯/陳曉慈 沒有人想看的第二次拜川大戰 Emma Willits, a mental health counselor from Des Moines, is looking for a candidate who cares about climate change and universal health care. She voted for President Joe Biden and will probably do so again, though Willits, 26, says "it feels a little hopeless, honestly." 來自狄蒙的心理諮商師艾瑪．維里茨正在找一位在乎氣候變遷與全民醫療健保的候選人。她上次投給拜登總統，而且可能會再投他一次，僅管26歲的維里茨表示：「講真的，這感覺有點絕望」。 Sitting on a bench just across the fair midway, John Hogan described how he believed Biden was a criminal who should be "hung" — before his wife shushed him for being unkind. He said he voted for Donald Trump twice and would probably do so again, if the former president wins his party's nomination for a third time. 侯根坐在博覽會中間再過去一點的長凳上，他講著自己相信拜登是個該被「吊死」的罪犯，直到他妻子認為他太刻薄，要他安靜。他說他投給川普兩次，若川普三度贏得黨內初選，他大概也會再投給他。 But Hogan, too, would like more options. 但侯根也想有更多選擇。 "These two jokers compared to Ronald Reagan?" said Hogan, a 58-year-old retiree from Pella, a small town an hour southeast of Des Moines. "Come on." 58歲、已退休的侯根來自佩拉，一個位於狄蒙東南方一小時車程的小鎮。他說：「這兩個小丑跟雷根比？拜託」。 In an era when American politics are defined by discord, there's one issue on which voters across the divided political landscape appear to be able to find common ground: Please, not another round of this. 在這個美國政治以不和著稱的時代，有一件事似乎是政治立場各不相同的選民都有共識：拜託，不要再來一次。 Five months before the first nominating contest in Iowa, the country appears headed for the first presidential-election rematch since 1956, when President Dwight Eisenhower defeated Adlai Stevenson II for the second time. 距離愛荷華州首場黨內初選仍有5個月，但美國似乎將面臨1956年後首次二度對決的總統大選；當年，艾森豪總統二度擊敗史蒂文生。 Interviews with more than two dozen strategists, voters and candidates indicate that many see the country as slowly marching not toward a new season but into reruns. And even in Iowa, where voters invest deeply in presidential politics, a whole lot of them would really like to change the channel. 訪問20多名選戰策士、選民及候選人的結果顯示，許多人認為美國正緩慢地邁向重播，而非新一季開播。即便是極為投入總統選舉的愛荷華州選民，很多人也真的想轉台。 "That's surprisingly one of the few things Americans can agree on right now — they don't want a rematch," Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota, one of the lesser-known Republicans challenging Trump, said in an interview while riding the Ferris wheel. "Presidential campaigns should be about a vision of where our country should go. In both cases, there's a lot of discussion of the past." 北達科他州長柏根是共和黨內名氣較小的川普挑戰者之一，他在搭乘摩天輪時受訪說：「這出乎意料之外地是當今美國人少數的共識之一，他們不想要二度對決。總統選戰應該是關於我們國家走向何方的願景。但在這兩次，許多討論都著墨於過去」。 Emily Wiebke grimaced when asked whether she was excited for a Biden-Trump rematch. She would vote for Biden again, she said, but would really like some less seasoned options. 當艾蜜莉．維比克被問到是否對拜登川普二度對決感到興奮，她做了個鬼臉。她說她會再次投給拜登，但真的很希望看到一些沒那麼老成的選項。 "Last time I kind of felt like, why are you making me choose between these two people?" said Wiebke, 48, a high school English teacher from Fort Dodge, Iowa. "Maybe get some younger people with some new ideas and kind of see where that is." 48歲的維比克是愛荷華州道奇堡的一名高中英語教師。她說：「上一次我有點感覺像是，為什麼要強迫我在這兩人之間選一個？或許可以讓一些有新想法的年輕人參選，然後看會發生什麼事」。 'Peak China' (Post-Dynasty Version) 盛極必衰 大陸發展已「觸頂」？ 文/Ephrat Livni 譯/高詣軒 盛極必衰 大陸發展已「觸頂」？ We live in an era of many peaks. If cultural commentators have it right, we have reached peak TV, peak girl, peak avocado, peak fish — even peak peak. Now China — perhaps prematurely — is getting the peak treatment in political science circles and the news media. 我們身處的時代充斥許多「頂峰」。若文化評論家說得沒錯，我們的電視已然觸頂、少女已觸頂、酪梨已觸頂、魚類已觸頂，甚至達到頂峰上的頂點。如今在政治學界和新聞媒體，或許是過早論斷吧，中國正被指稱已經觸頂。 "Peak China" refers to the hotly debated concept that China has reached the height of its economic power. Michael Beckley, head of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, believes he coined the term in a 2018 article that argued China's economy, the world's second largest, would not necessarily overtake the U.S. economy, as many had long projected. He said he had been inspired by "peak oil." 備受熱議的「中國觸頂」說法，指的是中國已達到其經濟實力的全盛期。外交政策研究所亞洲項目主管貝克利自認在2018年的一篇文章裡創造了這個詞，該文主張位居世界第二大的中國經濟，未必會如許多人預估那樣超越美國經濟。他說，其論述的靈感源自於「石油峰值論」。 "Political scientists write a lot about rise and decline, but there isn't a phrase that summarizes when a rising power starts to slow down," Beckley said. The term has since been widely adopted in debates about Chinese power and the trajectory it will take. 貝克利表示：「政治學家關於興衰的著述甚多，卻沒有簡述興起的強權開始放緩的用語。」從此以後，該詞在有關中國實力和其未來軌跡的論述中廣獲採用。 "Peak China" began making its way into headlines in 2021 when a Politico Europe article argued that China's international investments in infrastructure were producing disappointing results. The next year, Foreign Affairs used the phrase to counter the contention that the superpower was on a downswing. Soon, "peak China" chatter reached new heights. Think tanks internationally took up the question practically en masse. Political scientists debated it on YouTube. The Economist got on it. 「中國觸頂」在2021年開始登上各家媒體標題，當年有篇「Politico」歐洲版的文章主張，中國在國際的基礎建設投資案成效令人失望。隔年，「外交事務」援用該詞來反駁中國這個超級強國正步向衰弱的論調。很快的，「中國觸頂」一說甚囂塵上。國際上，各家智庫集體以務實角度探討這個問題，政治學者在YouTube上對此爭論，「經濟學人」也參了一腳。 Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois, the top Democrat on a House committee focused on competition with China, said he saw "real warning signs" that the Chinese economic engine might be sputtering. But he dismissed talk of "artificial peaks and plateaus," cautioning against basing assumptions about the nation's economic situation on the opaque and limited data it produces. 伊利諾州聯邦眾議員、眾院一個關注與中國競爭問題的委員會民主黨領袖克利什納穆希表示，他看到「切實的警訊」顯示中國經濟引擎可能正在告急，但對「人為的頂峰和停滯期」相關說法，他不以為然，提醒不應根據一國所產出的含糊、有限數據，來對其經濟情況做出臆測。 "I absolutely don't believe it's true," said Ian Bremmer, founder of the Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting company. He believes the concept that China's best days are behind it is "ideologically freighted," advanced by those with an adversarial worldview who ignore the country's continued growth and the fact that American businesses are interested in Chinese markets. 政治風險顧問公司「歐亞集團」創辦人布雷默表示：「我絕不相信這是事實」。中國的黃金時代已過去這種看法，他認為「承載著意識形態」，是與其敵對的世界觀所提出，無視該國經濟持續成長，以及美國企業對中國市場興致勃勃的事實。 "A hell of a lot of people are very excited to make money in China," he said. "It's objectively premature to use the phrase." 「一大票人迫不及待想在中國賺錢」，他說，「客觀來看，要用到那個詞還言之過早」。

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